Held-out paraphrases left the text arms statistically unchanged but sharply reduced both gate arms by lowering matcher agreement; ambiguous two-step probes resolved to no step and were still sometimes booked because state-bound enforcement decides eligibility rather than intent.

Reported and observed measurements

Assessments (0)

No immutable Assessment has been published for this Claim yet.

Runs (0)

No execution has been linked to this Claim yet.

Each row is a measurement with its reported value, latest available observation, and cumulative evidence state.
Metric and conditions	Reported	Latest observation	Evidence judgment
arm: raw transcript · scoring: strict · phrasing: canonical · wilson95Ci: [0.29,0.53]	0.41 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: raw transcript · scoring: strict · phrasing: held-out · wilson95Ci: [0.38,0.62]	0.5 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: raw transcript · scoring: strict · phrasing: held-out plus ambiguous · wilson95Ci: [0.21,0.43]	0.31 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: raw transcript · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: canonical · wilson95Ci: [0.46,0.69]	0.58 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: raw transcript · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: held-out · wilson95Ci: [0.52,0.75]	0.64 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: raw transcript · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: held-out plus ambiguous · wilson95Ci: [0.28,0.51]	0.39 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: text checklist · scoring: strict · phrasing: canonical · wilson95Ci: [0.5,0.73]	0.62 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: text checklist · scoring: strict · phrasing: held-out · wilson95Ci: [0.49,0.72]	0.61 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: text checklist · scoring: strict · phrasing: held-out plus ambiguous · wilson95Ci: [0.21,0.43]	0.31 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: text checklist · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: canonical · wilson95Ci: [0.67,0.86]	0.78 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: text checklist · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: held-out · wilson95Ci: [0.61,0.83]	0.73 proportion	—	Not assessed
arm: text checklist · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: held-out plus ambiguous · wilson95Ci: [0.31,0.54]	0.42 proportion	—	Not assessed

Metric and conditions

Reported

Latest observation

Evidence judgment

arm: raw transcript · scoring: strict · phrasing: canonical · wilson95Ci: [0.29,0.53]

0.41 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: raw transcript · scoring: strict · phrasing: held-out · wilson95Ci: [0.38,0.62]

0.5 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: raw transcript · scoring: strict · phrasing: held-out plus ambiguous · wilson95Ci: [0.21,0.43]

0.31 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: raw transcript · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: canonical · wilson95Ci: [0.46,0.69]

0.58 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: raw transcript · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: held-out · wilson95Ci: [0.52,0.75]

0.64 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: raw transcript · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: held-out plus ambiguous · wilson95Ci: [0.28,0.51]

0.39 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: text checklist · scoring: strict · phrasing: canonical · wilson95Ci: [0.5,0.73]

0.62 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: text checklist · scoring: strict · phrasing: held-out · wilson95Ci: [0.49,0.72]

0.61 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: text checklist · scoring: strict · phrasing: held-out plus ambiguous · wilson95Ci: [0.21,0.43]

0.31 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: text checklist · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: canonical · wilson95Ci: [0.67,0.86]

0.78 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: text checklist · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: held-out · wilson95Ci: [0.61,0.83]

0.73 proportion

—

Not assessed

arm: text checklist · scoring: decline-aware · phrasing: held-out plus ambiguous · wilson95Ci: [0.31,0.54]

0.42 proportion

—

Not assessed

Reported and observed measurements

Assessments (0)

Runs (0)

Measurement results